Blog Article
Sonny Cumbie’s 11-26 Record At Louisiana Tech Puts Him At #1 On Coaches Hot Seat Preseason Rankings—Here’s Why
Everyone pretends to be shocked when a coach gets fired after 3 straight losing seasons.
As if the writing wasn’t on the wall the entire time. Louisiana Tech head coach Sonny Cumbie enters his fourth season in 2025 with our hot seat rating of 0.574 (where 1.0 represents meeting expectations and anything below signals mounting pressure) and a .297 winning percentage. Translation: he’s cooked. Done. Finished.
The only question isn’t whether he’ll get fired, but when.
This Was Always Going To Happen
Cumbie took over Louisiana Tech in December 2021 with one selling point: offensive innovation.
This was the guy who was once the highest-paid offensive coordinator in college football at TCU. The air raid genius. The quarterback whisperer. Fast forward to 2024, and he’s giving up play-calling duties four games into the season.
Think about that for a second.
You hire a chef because he makes the world’s best pasta, and then four months later he’s asking someone else to cook the pasta because he can’t figure out the recipe anymore. That’s Sonny Cumbie at Louisiana Tech.
His record speaks for itself:
- 2022: 3-9
- 2023: 3-9
- 2024: 5-8
Three straight losing seasons. The program hasn’t had a winning record since 2019, which means under both Skip Holtz’s final year (3-9) and Cumbie’s entire tenure, Louisiana Tech has been irrelevant.
But here’s where it gets fascinating.
The Defense Got Better, The Offense Got Worse
In 2024, something magical happened on defense.
Louisiana Tech went from allowing 39.2 points per game in 2022 and 33.4 in 2023 to just 21.0 points per game in 2024. They ranked top 3 in Conference USA and top 15 nationally in total defense. Know what Cumbie did? He fired defensive coordinator Scott Power and hired Jeremiah Johnson.
Smart move. Problem solved.
While the defense found its footing, the offense lost its way completely:
- Yards per game dropped: 392 (2022) to 332.9 (2024)
- Offensive line couldn’t protect anybody
- Running game was nonexistent
- Eventually had to give up play-calling
So he handed the play-calling over to someone else.
Here’s what’s wild about this situation.
Conference USA Should Be Easy Money
You know what Conference USA looks like after realignment?
A watered-down version of its former self. Programs left for better conferences. The competition got weaker. The path to success got clearer. And Louisiana Tech still couldn’t figure it out.
The disappointing numbers tell the story:
- Conference record in 2024: 4-4
- Road record under Cumbie: 2-17
- Bowl appearances: 1 (only because Marshall opted out)
Four and four in conference play. In a league that should theoretically be easier to dominate than ever before. Two wins in 17 road games since taking over.
That’s not bad luck. That’s not external factors. That’s coaching.
Teams that can’t win on the road can’t win when things get uncomfortable. They fold under pressure. They make mistakes at critical moments.
They’re not mentally tough enough to handle adversity.
But There’s More At Stake Than Just Wins And Losses
Here’s where Athletic Director Ryan Ivey found himself in a tough spot.
Cumbie signed a five-year deal worth $4.85 million with a base salary that hit $1 million by 2024. Firing him means:
- Paying a buyout
- Paying to hire someone new
- Paying that new coach a competitive salary
For a program like Louisiana Tech, that’s real money.
But here’s what administrators never want to acknowledge: keeping a losing coach costs more than firing him. Losing seasons mean fewer ticket sales. Fewer donations. Less corporate sponsorship. Lower TV revenue. Decreased enrollment interest.
The financial damage compounds every year you wait.
Louisiana Tech made one bowl game under Cumbie—the 2024 Independence Bowl—and they only got that because Marshall opted out due to transfer portal losses. They lost to Army 27-6. That’s not progress.
That’s charity.
The 2025 Reality Check
CBS Sports ranked Cumbie as the only coach in the “Win or be fired” category with a perfect 5.0 rating from nine expert evaluators.
Translation: everyone who covers college football knows what’s coming. The schedule gives him a chance—manageable Conference USA opponents—but also exposes him to road trips to LSU and Washington State. Given his 2-17 road record, those games look like guaranteed losses.
Even with some positive developments, the challenges are mounting:
- Defensive improvement shows he can make changes
- But the offensive line lost key players to the transfer portal
- Tony Franklin hired as new offensive coordinator
- Yet history suggests desperation hires rarely work
The offensive line lost Ja’Marion Kennedy to Wake Forest and Zarian McGill to Colorado, which means the unit that was already struggling just got worse.
Here’s the thing about desperation moves.
Why This Matters Beyond Louisiana Tech
College football is brutal.
Coaches get hired based on potential and fired based on results. There’s no participation trophy for “trying hard” or “building culture” when you’re 11-26 over three seasons. Cumbie’s situation represents everything problematic about how programs evaluate coaching hires.
They fell in love with his reputation instead of his results:
- Assumed past success would automatically translate
- Ignored warning signs about fit and system
- Wanted to believe instead of evaluating reality
Louisiana Tech has proud football traditions. Conference championships. Bowl victories. Relevant seasons.
Under Cumbie, they’ve had none of that.
The Bottom Line
Sonny Cumbie is facing near-certain dismissal.
Whether it comes after early setbacks in 2025 or at the season’s end, the odds are stacked against him. The only question is how much damage Louisiana Tech is willing to accept while they delay what appears inevitable.
Because here’s what nobody wants to say out loud: keeping a struggling coach doesn’t protect the program’s future.
It jeopardizes it.
Our hot seat rating of 0.574 for Cumbie isn’t just a number. It’s a warning label. And everyone except the people making decisions seems to understand what it means.
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