Blog Article
ACC Conference Coaches Hot Seat Rankings – Preseason 2025
Every head coach in college football lives on borrowed time.
Some seats are scorching, others are comfortably cool—but all of them can change temperature in a single season. After our month-long deep dive into each ACC program, we’ve analyzed the numbers, parsed the press conferences, and applied our proprietary algorithms to rank every ACC coach’s job security heading into the 2025 season.
Here’s the definitive ranking of who’s feeling the heat and who’s sitting pretty:
1. Tony Elliott (Virginia)
Elliott’s seat isn’t just hot—it’s practically molten. With an abysmal 11-23 record (.324 winning percentage) that falls dramatically below our “Minimum Acceptable” threshold of .419 for UVA, Elliott enters 2025 needing at least eight wins to save his job. His inability to win close games (4-8 in one-score contests) and a complete offensive identity crisis have exhausted nearly all goodwill in Charlottesville. Even a $15 million NIL payroll and aggressive transfer portal strategy might not be enough to overcome three years of disappointment. With the Athletic Director’s contract expiring in June 2025, Elliott faces a likely “win or walk” ultimatum.
Hot Seat Status: SCORCHING
2. Troy Taylor (Stanford)
Four consecutive 3-9 seasons have Stanford football fans wondering if they’re trapped in a cruel time loop. Taylor’s .250 winning percentage (6-18) falls dramatically below what our analysts calculate as the minimum acceptable threshold of .506 for Stanford coaches. The most fascinating development is the unprecedented hiring of Cardinal legend Andrew Luck as General Manager—a move that signals Stanford recognizes business as usual isn’t working. Taylor’s saving grace might be his recruiting success, including landing promising quarterback Bear Bachmeier for the 2025 class. However, with sophomore Elijah Brown taking over at quarterback and significant holes remaining on defense, Taylor must show meaningful progress to avoid becoming another casualty of Stanford’s fall from relevance.
HOT SEAT STATUS: SCORCHING
3. Mike Norvell (Florida State)
After the most dramatic year-to-year collapse in college football history—from 13-1 ACC Champions to a disastrous 2-10 season—Norvell’s $54.4 million buyout keeps him employed. The problem isn’t just wins and losses; it’s a fundamental cultural disconnect. Despite contributing $4.5 million of his 2025 salary toward fundraising, Norvell’s heavy reliance on the transfer portal (with 16 new transfers ranking as the No. 5 class nationally) has created a roster with limited emotional investment in what it means to be a Seminole. If Norvell can’t reconnect players to Florida State’s traditions and pride while dramatically improving results, even that massive buyout won’t save him.
HOT SEAT STATUS: BOILING
4. Brent Pry (Virginia Tech)
Pry has pushed all his chips to the center of the table after a mediocre 6-6 season in 2024 and a 16-21 overall record through three years. He’s completely revamped his coaching staff, hiring Philip Montgomery (Baylor/Tulsa) as offensive coordinator and Sam Siefkes to lead the defense. The Hokies also face significant roster turnover with over 30 new players, including transfers like Cameron Seldon (Tennessee) and Sherrod Covil Jr. (Clemson). The good news? Kyron Drones returns at quarterback after showing flashes of brilliance in 2024. The bad news? Another 6-6 season might not be enough to save Pry’s job as national analysts like ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg and The Athletic’s Andy Staples have explicitly identified him as being on thin ice.
HOT SEAT STATUS: BOILING
5. Justin Wilcox (California)
Wilcox has reached his breaking point at Cal. His current .457 winning percentage sits below the “Minimum Acceptable” threshold of .490, and the program shows alarming signs of stagnation after three consecutive mediocre seasons (4-8 in 2022, 6-7 in 2023, 6-7 in 2024). What makes Cal’s situation particularly fascinating is Wilcox’s contract through 2027 with a massive $15 million buyout. Sensing the pressure, Wilcox has made a bold move: completely overhauling his offense by hiring former Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin as offensive coordinator and controversial former Washington State coach Nick Rolovich as senior offensive assistant. With new Chancellor Rich Lyons (the first Cal undergraduate to hold the position in nearly a century) already talking about making football “self-supporting,” 2025 represents a referendum on Wilcox’s tenure and the program’s direction.
HOT SEAT STATUS: BOILING
6. Mario Cristobal (Miami)
After Miami’s impressive 10-3 record and College Football Playoff appearance in 2024, it might seem strange to find Cristobal this high in our hot-seat rankings. However, his .579 winning percentage still falls below the .670 minimum acceptable winning percentage established by our metrics for a program with 5 national championships. More troublingly, in each of Cristobal’s three seasons, Miami has lost at least three of their final four games—a pattern suggesting structural problems in program conditioning, depth, or coaching adjustments. Despite his massive $80 million, 10-year contract with a reported $62 million buyout, Cristobal faces legitimate expectations in 2025: at least 10 regular season wins, an ACC Championship appearance, meaningful victories against Notre Dame and Florida, and a prestigious bowl victory. With Georgia transfer Carson Beck taking over at QB, Cristobal has the pieces for a special season—if he can solve his November fade problem.
HOT SEAT STATUS: HOT
7. Pat Narduzzi (Pittsburgh)
After an inexplicable 2024 season where the Panthers started 7-0 before losing six straight to finish 7-6, Narduzzi finds himself in unfamiliar territory—the hot seat. Despite a decent overall record (72-56, .563) and the 2021 ACC Championship, back-to-back disappointing seasons have fans restless. What makes Narduzzi’s situation particularly fascinating is his rumored $30 million buyout that runs through 2030. The quarterback competition between sophomore Eli Holstein and freshman Mason Heintschel will likely determine both Pitt’s ceiling and Narduzzi’s job security. Most critically, Narduzzi must solve the team’s fourth-quarter collapses and November mental toughness issues that defined their 2024 implosion.
HOT SEAT STATUS: HOT
8. Dave Doeren (NC State)
After 12 seasons, 87 wins, and zero ACC Championship appearances, Doeren faces the classic “good but not great” dilemma. His 44-46 ACC record and disappointing 6-7 campaign in 2024 have Wolfpack fans asking uncomfortable questions. Despite a contract through 2029 and a $15.7 million buyout, Doeren clearly feels the pressure—he’s completely overhauled his coaching staff, promoting Kurt Roper to offensive coordinator and hiring D.J. Eliot and Charlton Warren to lead the defense. If another mediocre season unfolds, AD Boo Corrigan might finally be forced to make the difficult conversation about whether NC State needs new leadership to reach the next level.
HOT SEAT STATUS: HOT
9. Brent Key (Georgia Tech)
After back-to-back 7-6 campaigns, Key has positioned Georgia Tech for what could be their most successful season in years. The Yellow Jackets rank 26th nationally and 3rd in the ACC in returning production—bringing back 64% of their offensive and 65% of their defensive production, including star quarterback Haynes King (72.9% completion rate), leading rusher Jamal Haynes, and top receiver Malik Rutherford. Their 2024 season showed flashes of greatness, including upsets of Florida State and Miami, plus pushing Georgia to eight overtimes. With a third year in offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner’s system, a favorable schedule, and returning talent, the Yellow Jackets have all the ingredients for a special season. The one glaring weakness Key must address? A pass rush that generated just 18 sacks all season (last in the ACC).
We have Key listed as “WARM” on our hot seat meter only because his winning record of .529 is below the Georgia Tech minimum standard of .534. However, we think Georgia Tech could emerge as the surprise team in the ACC this season (which would move Key’s Hot Seat status to COOL.)
HOT SEAT STATUS: WARM TRENDING COOL
10. Fran Brown (Syracuse)
Brown faces a pivotal second year after an impressive 10-3 debut season that included victories over three AP-ranked teams and a Holiday Bowl win over Washington State. Now comes the hard part: proving it wasn’t just a one-year wonder. Syracuse has lost several cornerstone players, including record-setting quarterback Kyle McCord (4,779 yards, 34 TDs) and dynamic running back LeQuint Allen (1,021 rushing yards, 521 receiving yards, 20 total TDs). The Orange face what might be college football’s most demanding schedule in 2025, with matchups against Tennessee, Clemson, SMU, Miami, and Notre Dame. Brown has leveraged the transfer portal aggressively, securing the 11th-ranked transfer class nationally, but with LSU transfer Rickie Collins taking over at quarterback with limited collegiate experience, expectations should be managed realistically.
HOT SEAT STATUS: COOL
11. Bill O’Brien (Boston College)
O’Brien exceeded expectations in his first season at BC, compiling a 7-6 record, including a stunning upset over #10 Florida State. While most analysts focus on the Florida State upset and his NFL/Alabama pedigree, they miss the deeper story: BC built their success on a foundation of dominant rushing (166.1 yards per game) and a defense that created chaos (17 interceptions, 31 sacks). Despite significant transfer portal losses—including QB Thomas Castellanos to Florida State and RB Kye Robichaux to graduation—O’Brien has strategically addressed needs by adding Alabama transfer QB Dylan Lonergan and several key defensive pieces. The combination of contractual stability (including a unique clause preventing NFL departures) and early success gives O’Brien something rare in college football: time to build his program the right way.
HOT SEAT STATUS: COOL
12. Dabo Swinney (Clemson)
The most significant development in Clemson’s program isn’t winning the ACC Championship in 2024 or making another College Football Playoff appearance—it’s Dabo Swinney finally deciding to evolve. After years of resisting modern trends, Swinney has embraced the transfer portal, adding perfect pieces like Will Heldt (Purdue edge rusher), Jeremiah Alexander (Alabama LB), and Tristan Smith (Southeast Missouri State WR) to complement an already loaded roster. Critically, Swinney isn’t abandoning his principles but enhancing them, as evidenced by a strong 2025 recruiting class featuring 5-star DL Amare Adams and 4-star RB Gideon Davidson. With defensive coordinator Tom Allen implementing his aggressive system and QB Cade Klubnik entering his third year in offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s system, Clemson has combined everything that made them great (championship culture, elite development) with everything they needed (modern roster building, innovative schemes).
HOT SEAT STATUS: COOL
13. Jeff Brohm (Louisville)
After back-to-back 9+ win seasons, Brohm has established Louisville as a program on the rise. The Cardinals lost significant talent—including QB Tyler Shough, WR Ja’Corey Brooks, and defensive standouts—but Brohm has weaponized the transfer portal, adding 21 players (ranking 21st nationally and 4th in the ACC). The crown jewel is USC transfer QB Miller Moss, who torched Louisville for 372 yards and six touchdowns in the 2023 Holiday Bowl. With explosive RBs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson returning, eight home games, and a favorable schedule, Brohm has positioned Louisville for another breakthrough season. ESPN’s SP+ ranks Louisville 22nd nationally, and Bill Connelly projects them as a potential 4th seed in the expanded playoff. The only question is whether the new pieces can gel quickly enough to capitalize on this golden opportunity.
HOT SEAT STATUS: COOL
14. Rhett Lashlee (SMU)
After shocking the college football world with an 11-3 record and perfect 8-0 conference run in their ACC debut, Lashlee has rapidly cooled his seat. The Mustangs aren’t just happy to be in the ACC—they’re legitimate contenders. Quarterback Kevin Jennings returns after a stellar season (3,245 passing yards, 23 TDs), and SMU has strategically used the transfer portal to add perfect pieces like Zion Nelson (OT), Anthony Evans (WR), and Terry Webb (DL). While detractors point to losses against Power Four competition, they ignore how close those games were and how much talent SMU brings back. If Lashlee can improve defensive consistency against elite competition, make better in-game adjustments, and replace lost offensive production, SMU has legitimate national championship upside in just their second ACC season.
HOT SEAT STATUS: COOL
15. Manny Diaz (Duke)
After a surprising 9-4 record (5-3 in conference play) in 2024, Diaz has quickly established himself as one of the ACC’s brightest coaching stars. Duke made the biggest quarterback splash in program history this offseason by securing former Tulane star Darian Mensah, who commanded a reported $8 million deal over two years. The defense, Diaz’s specialty, returns several key playmakers including All-American cornerback Chandler Rivers and All-American safety Terry Moore. The Blue Devils’ 2025 recruiting class ranks #33-35 nationally, the highest-rated class in program history. The brutal 2025 schedule—featuring nine bowl teams from 2024 and road trips to Clemson, SMU, Miami, and Notre Dame—will test whether Diaz can build sustainable success or if 2024 was simply a one-year wonder.
HOT SEAT STATUS: COOL
16. Jake Dickert (Wake Forest)
After four consecutive 3-9 seasons under Dave Clawson, Wake Forest’s complete coaching overhaul under Dickert signals a program ready for transformation. Dickert doesn’t just bring a 23-20 record from Washington State—he brings experience navigating extreme adversity, having managed through financial crisis, the Pac-12 collapse, and significant roster exodus. He’s completely rebuilt Wake’s coaching staff, adding offensive coordinator Rob Ezell (whose South Alabama offense averaged 34.4 points per game), defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton, and creating a 10-member recruiting infrastructure that simply didn’t exist before. While early ACC power rankings place Wake Forest 16th heading into 2025 with statistical projections suggesting a modest improvement to 5-7, Dickert’s comprehensive approach emphasizes building a foundation rather than seeking quick wins. For a program that looked increasingly directionless in 2024, Dickert’s arrival represents something invaluable: a coherent vision for the future.
Read the full Wake Forest deep dive
HOT SEAT STATUS: COOL
17. Bill Belichick (North Carolina)
The college football world collectively gasped when the legendary NFL coach announced he was taking his talents to Chapel Hill after 24 seasons, 6 Super Bowl rings, and more than 300 victories with the New England Patriots. After a disappointing 6-7 season in 2024 that ended Mack Brown’s second tenure, UNC made the most shocking hire in recent memory. Belichick’s impact was immediately visible—players took the field wearing jerseys without names or numbers, the most visible sign of the “team-first” philosophy that defined his New England dynasty. While the university has committed to a nearly 25% increase in football spending, Belichick faces unique challenges in his college coaching debut: NCAA rules restricting player contact, mastering recruiting and NIL landscapes, and adapting his demanding style for younger athletes. With quarterback uncertainty (Purdue transfer Ryan Browne and freshman Bryce Baker lead a thin depth chart) and a roster in transition, 2025 will be about building a foundation rather than making an immediate championship push.
HOT SEAT STATUS: COOL
