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Billy Napier Was 40-12 At Louisiana And 22-23 At Florida. Here’s Why JMU Is Betting He’s Still The Louisiana Version.
Billy Napier just landed the best job in Group of Five football.
James Madison went 40-10 in its first three FBS seasons. The Dukes won a Sun Belt title. They made the College Football Playoff. And now Bob Chesney – the coach who built that 2025 run – is gone to UCLA.
Napier inherits a dynasty mid-flight.
This isn’t a rebuild. This isn’t a “prove yourself” job. This is a “don’t break what’s already working” job – and that’s an entirely different kind of pressure.
22-23 At Florida. 40-12 At Louisiana. Same Coach.
Napier was fired from Florida with the worst 30-game record for a Gators coach since the 1940s.
He went 5-20 against ranked opponents. He won just four road games in nearly four full seasons. His late-season record at Florida was 6-10 – the opposite of a closer.
But the same coach went 40-12 at Louisiana.
He won back-to-back Sun Belt titles. He finished ranked in the AP Top 20 twice. His late-season record with the Ragin’ Cajuns was 16-3.
Same coach. Completely different results.
The difference wasn’t scheme. It wasn’t recruiting. It wasn’t even playcalling (though that didn’t help). The difference was context.
At Louisiana, Napier had the best roster in his conference. At Florida, he was bringing a knife to a gunfight every Saturday in the SEC.
6-24 Against Ranked Teams – But Context Changes Everything.
I pulled Napier’s career splits across both stops.
The numbers reveal exactly why this JMU hire makes sense—and exactly where the risk lives.
Career Record: 64-39 (.621)
| Split | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 38-23 | .623 |
| Away | 22-9 | .710 |
| Neutral | 4-7 | .364 |
| Late Season | 22-13 | .629 |
| vs Ranked | 6-24 | .200 |
| Bowl Games | 5-4 | .556 |
That 6-24 record against ranked teams looks catastrophic.
But context matters. At Louisiana, he only faced five ranked opponents in four years – and went 1-4. At Florida, he faced 25 ranked teams and went 5-20. The SEC forced him into a weight class he couldn’t compete in.
Louisiana-specific splits:
| Split | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 41-12 | .774 |
| Late Season | 16-3 | .842 |
| Bowl Games | 4-3 | .571 |
When Napier has the roster advantage, he closes. When he doesn’t, he collapses.
JMU gives him the roster advantage.
23 Players Hit The Portal. 7 Already Followed Chesney To UCLA.
Here’s the part that should worry JMU fans.
Twenty-three players entered the transfer portal after the Dukes’ CFP run. Seven have already followed Chesney to UCLA – including star running back Wayne Knight, receiver Landon Ellis, and edge rusher Aiden Gobaira. Sun Belt Player of the Year Alonza Barnett III left for UCF.
This isn’t a one-time thing, either.
When Curt Cignetti left JMU for Indiana after 2023, he took 13 players with him – including multiple All-Group of Five performers. The Dukes have now lost two head coaches to Power Four jobs in back-to-back years, and both times the roster got raided.
Napier’s first job isn’t installing his system. It’s stopping the bleeding.
Early signs are encouraging:
- He’s landed former LSU four-star receiver Kylan Billiot
- He’s kept key returners like running back George Pettaway and receiver Braeden Wisloski
- He’s pulling transfers from East Tennessee State, West Florida, and Northern Arizona to restock the depth chart
But the margin for error is thin.
He’s Giving Up Playcalling. Florida Is Paying His Salary. He Won’t Get Poached.
Three things are working in Napier’s favor that weren’t true at Florida.
First: He’s giving up playcalling.
This was the single biggest complaint during his Gainesville tenure. Slow tempo. Predictable sequences. Clock management disasters. Napier publicly committed at his JMU introduction to letting offensive coordinator Cam Aiken call plays.
If he actually follows through, that’s the biggest operational change of his career.
Second: Florida is subsidizing his salary.
Napier’s buyout from Florida was approximately $21 million – paid with no offset. That means JMU is getting a former SEC head coach at a modest base, freeing up budget for staff and NIL. Napier has also said his performance bonuses will go directly into a program discretionary fund.
Donors love this structure. It’s leverage without cost.
Third: He won’t get poached.
Cignetti left for Indiana. Chesney left for UCLA. Both coaches used JMU as a springboard to Power Four jobs within two years.
Napier’s Power Four stock is damaged. Nobody is calling him for a major job anytime soon. That’s a feature, not a bug. JMU finally has a coach who might actually stay.
Chesney’s Career Win Rate: .706. Napier Is A Stabilizer, Not An Elevator.
Bob Chesney’s career record is 120-50 (.706) across four stops.
He won conference titles at Salve Regina, Assumption, Holy Cross, and JMU. He took Holy Cross to five straight Patriot League titles and four FCS playoff berths. In two seasons at JMU, he went 21-5 with a bowl win and a CFP appearance.
Chesney is a program elevator. He takes jobs and immediately exceeds their historical baseline.
Napier is a stabilizer. He wins when the infrastructure is already in place. He struggles when he has to build from scratch or compete above his weight class.
JMU fans aren’t upgrading. They’re trading upside for security.
That’s not necessarily a bad trade. But it’s the trade they’re making.
Year 1 Is The Excuse Year. Year 2 Is The Real Test.
Here’s how this plays out.
Year 1 (2026): The excuse year. Massive roster turnover. New staff. Learning the Sun Belt landscape again. Anything above 8-4 is a win. Anything below 7-5 is a problem.
Year 2 (2027): The prove-it year. By now, the roster is his. The system is installed. JMU should be competing for a Sun Belt title. If they’re not, questions start.
Year 3 (2028): The ceiling year. This is where we find out if Napier can match what Cignetti and Chesney built – or if he’s just maintaining altitude. A CFP appearance resets the clock. A third-place Sun Belt finish starts the hot seat conversation.
Napier has a five-year deal. But the real evaluation window is 24 months.
Good Hire. Not A Home Run. JMU Is Trading Upside For Security.
Billy Napier is a good hire for JMU.
He’s not a great hire. He’s not a home-run hire. He’s a logical, defensible, high-floor hire for a program that just lost its second coach in two years to a Power Four job.
The Sun Belt is his natural habitat. The roster he’s inheriting is better than anything he had at Louisiana. The financial structure works in his favor. And for the first time in his career, he’s publicly committed to getting out of his own way on gameday.
If he can stabilize the portal losses, maintain top-three Sun Belt recruiting, and actually let Cam Aiken call plays – JMU stays in the CFP conversation.
If he reverts to Florida habits – slow tempo, conservative playcalling, late-game collapses – the 40-10 era ends fast.
The stat that got him fired is the same stat that makes him perfect for JMU.
Now he has to prove it.
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