Blog Article
Joe Moorhead Was Supposed To Fix Akron Football. Instead, He’s Turned Statistical Improvement Into An Art Form Of Losing
The math doesn’t lie at Akron.
Three seasons into his tenure at Akron, the veteran coach sits on college football’s third-hottest seat with a 0.659 Hot Seat Rating™ in the Coaches Hot Seat® rankings. This number reflects significant underperformance against expectations, where 1.0 represents meeting expectations and anything below signals mounting pressure. His 8-28 record tells the story of a program trapped between statistical improvement and actual wins, a cruel mathematical reality that has defined his existence in Ohio.
The numbers reveal a stunning contradiction: a supposed offensive mastermind who can’t win games.
The Statistical Paradox That Defines Frustration
Moorhead’s three-year journey at Akron reads like a case study in how progress doesn’t always equal success.
2022 Season Reality:
- Record: 2-10
- Offense: 21.6 points per game
- Defense: 33.5 points allowed per game
- The diagnosis: An offense with potential, destroyed by defensive incompetence
2023 Season Nightmare:
- Record: 2-10 (again)
- Offense: 16.3 points per game (brutal regression)
- Defense: 28.0 points allowed per game (solid improvement)
- The diagnosis: Fixed defense, broken offense—same losing result
2024 Season Mockery:
- Record: 4-8 (modest improvement)
- Offense: 20.4 points per game (rebound)
- Defense: 32.0 points allowed per game (regression)
- The diagnosis: One step forward, one step back, still losing
Here’s what makes this maddening: Moorhead himself admits they’ve had “10 one-score losses in two years, including five by a field goal or less and four of those in overtime.”
These aren’t blowouts suggesting systemic failure.
These are heartbreaking defeats that reveal a program tantalizingly close to competence but consistently unable to cross the finish line.
When Statistics Lie: The Buffalo Game That Broke Everyone’s Brain
Last season’s 41-30 loss to Buffalo perfectly encapsulated Akron’s mathematical impossibility.
The numbers that should have meant victory:
- Akron outgained Buffalo 452-390 total yards
- Dominated through the air 378-210 in passing yards
- Won the third-down battle 43% to 23%
- Ben Finley threw for 378 yards and four touchdowns
The reality that happened: Buffalo spotted a 38-7 lead before Akron remembered how to play football.
When your quarterback throws for 378 yards and four touchdowns but you still lose by double digits, the problem isn’t talent—it’s execution, culture, and coaching.
Individual Brilliance Wasted by Collective Incompetence
The 2024 roster showcased exactly the kind of talent that should translate to wins.
Offensive weapons that should have dominated:
- Adrian Norton: 831 receiving yards, 19.3 yards per catch, 7 touchdowns
- Ben Finley: 2,604 passing yards, 16 touchdowns over 12 games
- Jordon Simmons: 664 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per carry
- Garrison Smith: 81.3% field goal accuracy
The coaching failure: When you have explosive playmakers at every skill position and a reliable kicker, yet still struggle to win games, the responsibility falls squarely on scheme execution and leadership.
These individual performances should have combined to create a winning formula.
Instead, they highlighted the coaching staff’s inability to synthesize talent into consistent team success.
The Defensive Regression That Destroyed Progress
Here’s where Moorhead’s tenure becomes truly damning.
After limiting opponents to 335.0 yards per game in 2023, the 2024 defense collapsed to allowing 414.4 yards per contest—nearly returning to the abysmal 2022 levels.
The regression wasn’t subtle:
- Pass defense: Opponents completed 64.4% (up from 55.9% in 2023)
- Run defense: Allowed 183.3 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry
- Takeaways: Just 7 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries in 12 games
- Turnover rate: 1.3 per game (pathetic for modern college football)
In a sport where possessions are precious, this defensive inability to create turnovers severely limited Akron’s margin for error.
The 2025 Roster Overhaul: Desperation or Smart Strategy?
Understanding the pressure he faces, Moorhead has aggressively addressed roster deficiencies.
Defensive reinforcements:
- Over 10 new defensive linemen
- Multiple linebacker additions
- Several players exceeding 290 pounds
- New cornerbacks and safeties for improved coverage
Offensive upgrades:
- Multiple running backs over 205 pounds
- Offensive line featuring players over 300 pounds
- Reduced dependence on individual playmakers
- Better short-yardage reliability
The critical question: Will these roster upgrades translate to actual wins, or just better statistics in losing efforts?
Schedule Reality: Opportunity and Pitfalls
The 2025 schedule presents both hope and danger.
Non-conference games:
- Wyoming (winnable)
- Nebraska (measuring stick against Power Five)
- UAB (should win)
- Duquesne (must win)
MAC schedule challenges:
- Eight conference games, including Toledo and Central Michigan
- Potentially favorable matchups against UMass and Kent State
- More home games late in the season
The pressure point: If Akron stumbles in winnable non-conference games or struggles early in MAC play, the familiar pattern of close losses and moral victories could quickly resurrect coaching change discussions.
The Cultural Problem That Statistics Can’t Fix
The psychological burden of consistent losing has infected this program’s DNA.
When players and coaches expect close games to slip away in the fourth quarter, those expectations often become reality. Breaking this cycle requires more than tactical adjustments—it demands a complete cultural shift that validates belief in eventual success.
Moorhead’s track record suggests understanding:
- Previous championship experience at multiple stops
- Background as an offensive innovator
- History of developing NFL-caliber talent
The concerning pattern: His previous head coaching stint at Mississippi State ended in frustration despite superior talent, raising questions about his ability to maintain program culture over extended periods.
Make-or-Break Mathematics
The 2025 season represents Moorhead’s final realistic opportunity to demonstrate sustained improvement.
The brutal math:
- Overall FBS head coaching record: 22-40
- Akron record: 8-28 over three seasons
- Hot seat rating: 0.659 (third-hottest in FBS)
- Winning percentage: .222
The irony: Moorhead was supposed to be the sure thing—the experienced head coach, the familiar face, the proven winner. Instead, he’s become living proof that coordinating success and leading it are entirely different skills.
Another disappointing campaign would likely end his tenure and potentially damage his reputation as a coordinator candidate.
Bottom Line: Incremental Progress Isn’t Enough
Akron’s 2025 season will be defined by whether Moorhead can finally convert statistical improvement and individual talent into actual victories.
The roster upgrades provide tools for success.
The schedule offers winnable opportunities.
The pressure demands immediate results.
The simple equation: With a 0.659 hot seat rating and his track record at Akron, Moorhead needs wins—not moral victories, not improved statistics, but actual wins that demonstrate tangible program advancement.
For a program that has managed just 8 victories in 36 games under his leadership, 2025 represents far more than another season of development.
It’s the final calculation in determining whether Joe Moorhead can solve Akron’s perpetual problem of underachievement, or whether his tenure will become another cautionary tale about the difference between coordinating brilliance and leading it.
Want to know which other “under the radar” coaches are about to be on the hot seat?
I track the real hot seats (not just the obvious ones) every Friday in my free newsletter.
Join thousands of readers who get the stories before they become headlines: Coaches Hot Seat Insider.