Blog Article
The Great Coaching Correction of 2024
In the high-stakes college football casino, the usual season-end trading frenzy has given way to something more unusual: fiscal restraint. We’re calling it “The Great Coaching Correction of 2024.” You see, athletic departments across the country are staring down a triple-witching hour of financial obligations that would make even a seasoned hedge fund manager break into a cold sweat: massive coaching buyouts, the impending $20 million House settlement expense per school, and another estimated $20 million (first year) hit from revenue sharing with athletes. Suddenly, the market for coaching talent is behaving less like cryptocurrency in 2021 and more like banks during a Federal Reserve stress test.
Billy Napier, Florida
Consider Billy Napier at Florida, a case study in modern football economics. In a world where 70% of Florida’s NIL payments flow to underclassmen—a stat that would make any Wall Street analyst question the business model’s sustainability—Napier has somehow convinced his CEO, Scott Strickland, to double down on their position. It’s the contrarian bet that either makes or ends careers. The market had priced Napier for failure after the Miami and Texas A&M disasters, but like a value investor spotting hidden assets, Strickland saw something others missed: stability in chaos. Or perhaps more accurately, he saw the price tag of starting over.
Napier’s Change Meter: Ice Cold
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Meanwhile, Sam Pittman presents a different sort of market inefficiency in Arkansas. At 62, with a hip that’s giving out, he’s like an aging blue-chip stock with solid fundamentals but questionable long-term prospects. The twist? This comes courtesy of Jackson Collier of the Hardwood Hawgs Podcast – hidden in plain sight in his contract is a provision that would make any compensation committee blush: hit seven wins, including a bowl game, and trigger an automatic extension and raise. This incentive structure would make even the most hardened private equity executive wonder about governance. Let me repeat that – if he gets to seven wins – LA Tech plus one other, including the bowl – he gets a raise and extension. Completely doable.
Pittman’s Change Meter: Cool
Dave Aranda, Baylor
But the real arbitrage play is happening in Waco, Texas, where Dave Aranda’s job security has behaved like a volatile tech stock—swooping early, rebounding late, and keeping traders guessing. After opening 2-4 with wins against only Air Force and something called Tarleton State, Aranda’s position looked about as secure as a crypto wallet password. Yet here he is, three wins later, trading above his September lows on volume. His contract runs through 2029, and in this bear market for buyouts, that’s starting to look less like a liability and more like a forced diamond-hands strategy. If he is a smidge above .500, he stays.
Change Meter: Lukewarm trending cool
Charles Huff, Marshall
The distressed assets division brings us to Marshall’s Charles Huff, a coach whose contract is expiring like a soon-to-mature junk bond. At 27-20 over four seasons, including a telling 5-1 against non-Power Four competition this year, Huff’s position looks like a classic case of a middle-market firm unable to compete with the more prominent players. The smart money is betting on a change, though in this capital-constrained environment, even obvious moves come with additional scrutiny.
Huff’s Change Meter: Hot
Kevin Wilson, Tulsa
Then there’s Kevin Wilson at Tulsa, running a program performing like a penny stock in a bear market. When your highlight reel consists of a single comeback win against UTSA and a victory over 3-5 Louisiana Tech, you’re trading in territory usually reserved for companies about to be delisted. At 5-14 in two seasons, Wilson—a former blue-chip coordinator at Ohio State and Oklahoma—has turned premium pedigree into discount-bin performance.
Wilson’s Change Meter: Hot
Trent Dilfer, UAB
The most fascinating short position in the market might be Trent Dilfer at UAB. In less than two years, he’s taken Bill Clark’s ascending program—six straight winning seasons, two conference titles—and performed a dismantling usually reserved for failed hedge funds. His now-infamous “It’s not like this is freakin’ Alabama” quip reads like a CEO dismissing disappointing earnings by saying, “We’re not Apple.” The market rarely forgives such hubris, but at a $4.1 million buyout, the cost of forgiveness in this economy starts to look like a luxury good.
Dilfer’s Change Meter: Hot to Warm
Don Brown, UMass
At the extreme end of the risk spectrum sits Don Brown at UMass, whose position has moved from “distressed asset” to “complete write-off.” The market has spoken, and this particular security is being delisted.
Brown’s Change Meter: Scorching
High Profile, Power 4 Rumored Hot Seats
However, perhaps the most telling indicator comes from the “too big to fail” institutions—Florida State, USC, Oklahoma, Nebraska—where the Mike Norvells and Lincoln Rileys of the world operate with the kind of security usually reserved for government bonds. These programs have determined that stability, even at a premium, is preferable to the volatility of the coaching free agency market, especially with the looming costs of settlements and revenue sharing casting shadows over their balance sheets.
Change Meter: Ice Cold
Ultimately, college football’s coaching market operates with all the efficiency of a teenager with their first credit card. It overreacts to both success and failure, frequently misprices assets, and occasionally makes moves that would make a bankruptcy lawyer blush. But like all markets, it eventually finds its level—even if that level involves paying millions to make someone go away. This year, though, a cold dose of fiscal reality has tempered the usual irrational exuberance. When your industry is staring down $40+ million in new mandatory expenses, even the most trigger-happy athletic director thinks twice about adding another eight-figure buyout to the books.
