Blog Article
Tulane Football in 2025: Fighting a $15 Million Gunfight with a $2 Million Knife
Tulane football, the AAC Championship runner-up, just lost its star quarterback to an $8 million NIL deal.
This is the new reality for Tulane and head coach Jon Sumrall as they enter the 2025 season: competing against programs with financial resources far exceeding their own. Despite reaching the AAC Championship in Sumrall’s first season, the Green Wave now find themselves in a challenging position, rebuilding after watching their top performers get poached by larger programs with deeper NIL pockets.
“When you have a — call it a couple-million dollar roster versus a $15 million dollar roster you’re going sometimes into a gun fight with a knife,” Sumrall bluntly stated at the New Orleans Book Festival, as John Brice of Football Scoop reported.
But Sumrall isn’t backing down.
The Mass Exodus: How Much Talent Did Tulane Lose?
Quarterback Darian Mensah led the AAC in completion percentage and transferred to Duke for a reported $8 million NIL deal.
That’s just the beginning of Tulane’s exodus:
- QB Darian Mensah: Left for Duke after throwing for 2,723 yards and 22 TDs with a 65.9% completion rate
- RB Makhi Hughes: Hughes departed for Oregon after being the team’s workhorse in 2024
- WR Room: All three top receivers – Mario Williams, Dontae Fleming, and Yulkeith Brown – transferred out
- TE Alex Bauman: Moved to Miami, removing another key receiving option
- Additional Losses: RBs Shaadie Clayton-Johnson (North Texas) and Trey Cornist (Central Michigan)
- Defense: DL Parker Petersen transferred to Wisconsin
These weren’t just role players—they were the core of an offense that averaged 405 yards per game and was remarkable for its efficiency (62.9% completion rate) and discipline (just 1.1 turnovers per game).
How do you replace that much production in one off-season?
Sumrall’s Portal Strategy: 23 New Transfers to the Rescue
“We’re going to find every way we can to be successful and win,” Sumrall insists. “I’m biased and I may have blinders on and so I’m going to compete to win against whoever we play. Anyone, anywhere, anytime.”
His actions back up those words, with Tulane bringing in 23 transfers to rebuild the roster:
- T.J. Finley (QB): A 6’7″ pocket passer with experience at LSU, Auburn, Texas State, and Western Kentucky
- Maurice Turner (RB): Louisville transfer stepping into a depleted backfield
- Jimmy Calloway (WR): Another Louisville transfer tasked with rebuilding the receiving corps
- Defensive Line Reinforcements: Eliyt Nairne (Liberty), Trevon Alpine (Texas Tech), and Derrick Sheppard (UAB)
- Jordan Hall (OL): Liberty transfer brought in to strengthen the offensive line
While the offense undergoes a complete rebuild, the defensive front seven might be stronger than last year’s unit that allowed 145.8 rushing yards per game.
But will it be enough?
Position-by-Position: Where Tulane Stands in 2025
Quarterbacks: The Veteran Journeyman
T.J. Finley brings much-needed experience, but can the traditional pocket passer replicate Mensah’s dual-threat efficiency?
The transition from Mensah to Finley represents a complete style change:
- Mensah was mobile and efficient (166.7 passer rating)
- Finley is a prototypical pocket passer with a big arm
- Early-season growing pains seem inevitable
- The ceiling remains high if chemistry develops with new receivers
Verdict: 🟡 Different style, similar potential production with patience
Running Backs: Starting From Scratch
The backfield faces the steepest rebuild on the entire roster.
Maurice Turner arrives from Louisville to a room that’s lost virtually all of its production:
- Hughes has gone to Oregon
- Clayton-Johnson transferred to North Texas
- Cornist moved to Central Michigan
- A committee approach seems likely in 2025
- Early-season production could be inconsistent
Verdict: đź”´ Complete rebuild required
Wide Receivers: Who Steps Up?
Jimmy Calloway and other portal additions face enormous pressure with all top contributors gone.
The receiver reset is total:
- All three top producers from 2024 transferred out
- Chemistry with Finley must develop quickly
- Unproven players will need to step into major roles
- Expect new offensive wrinkles to help ease the transition
Verdict: đź”´ Major question marks remain
Defensive Line: The Bright Spot
This unit might be stronger in 2025 than it was in 2024.
The additions through the portal should create a more disruptive front:
- Nairne, Alpine, and Sheppard bring experience and size
- The 2024 unit was solid but unspectacular (145.8 rush yards/game)
- Increased pressure could help the entire defense
- Potential to be the team’s strength in 2025
Verdict: 🟢 Potential to be the team’s strength
Linebackers and Secondary: Stability Matters
These units remain relatively intact from the 2024 squad.
The defensive back seven provides needed continuity:
- Minimal losses to the transfer portal
- The secondary allowed 177.7 passing yards per game in 2024
- More pressure up front could create more turnover opportunities
- Likely to carry the team early while the offense develops
Verdict: 🟡 Solid but not spectacular
The 2025 Schedule: Opportunity and Challenge
Tulane’s path through 2025 includes fascinating storylines and significant tests.
Non-Conference Headliners:
- Aug. 30: Northwestern (Home)
- Sept. 13: Duke (Home) – Mensah returns to New Orleans
- Sept. 20: Ole Miss (Away) – Major SEC challenge
Critical Conference Games:
- Oct. 18: Army (Home) – 2024 AAC Championship rematch
- Oct. 30: UTSA (Away) – Thursday night vs. rising conference power
- Nov. 7: Memphis (Away) – Always a challenging road environment
Two strategically placed bye weeks (Oct. 4 and Oct. 25) should help the coaching staff make necessary adjustments throughout the season.
Can Tulane Find Sumrall’s “Secret Sauce”?
“Can you be the best in your league and find that secret sauce at the end where there’s chemistry and cohesion and culture that maybe beats somebody that may have a touch more talent than you?” Sumrall asked at the New Orleans Book Festival.
This question cuts to the heart of Tulane’s 2025 season.
Despite the coaching stability (Sumrall extended his contract in December 2024 despite Power 4 interest), the roster turnover creates enormous uncertainty. Integration of 23 new transfers tests even the best coaching staff.
The “secret sauce” of chemistry, cohesion, and culture faces its ultimate test.
Realistic Expectations: What Success Looks Like in 2025
With massive roster turnover and a challenging schedule, Tulane fans should recalibrate expectations.
Here’s what to watch for:
- Early Growing Pains: September could be rough as the offense develops chemistry
- Defensive Emergence: The defense may need to carry the team early
- Midseason Improvement: If Finley settles in, the team could hit stride by mid-October
- Bowl Eligibility: Securing six wins would represent success in this transition year
- Conference Contention: Returning to the AAC Championship would be an impressive achievement
The Existential Question: Is Cinderella Dead in the NIL Era?
“Is it dead? I don’t know about that, yet. But, it’s challenging,” Sumrall said when asked if the Cinderella story is still possible in modern college football.
This is the existential question facing programs like Tulane’s.
How do you build sustainable success when your best players become immediate targets for financial packages you can’t match? When Sumrall says, “they’re able to just steal players from you left and right,” he’s describing a fundamental challenge to programs outside the Power 4 conferences.
Tulane’s 2025 season isn’t just about wins and losses—it’s about proving that a sustainable model exists for programs with limited resources in the NIL era.
Suppose Sumrall can develop undervalued players, effectively use the transfer portal, and build a strong culture to retain at least some key contributors. In that case, the Green Wave might establish a blueprint for similar programs.
For 2025, temper your expectations on the field.
But watch closely for signs that Sumrall is building something that can withstand the annual talent exodus that programs like Tulane now face in modern college football.
After all, he’s attempting something extraordinary: bringing a knife to a gunfight – and trying to win anyway.
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